Combat Edge Intelligence

John Castañeda vs Shamidkhan Magomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

21-8-1Record10-2-0
BantamweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height6'0"
71"Reach71.5"
135 lbsWeight170 lbs
The AcademyTeamK Dojo Warrior Tribe Team

What's at stake

John Castañeda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Shamidkhan Magomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

John CastañedaNow 1697
If they win+11→ 1708
If they lose-13→ 1684
Shamidkhan MagomedovNow 1680
If they win+17→ 1697
If they lose-15→ 1665

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1668 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.95
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
51%
Strike accuracy
Not available
5.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
54%
Strike defense
Not available
1.49
Takedown avg.
Not available
0%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
76%
Takedown defense
Not available
0.11
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

John CastañedaShamidkhan Magomedov
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (38%)
KO/TKO
5 (50%)
6 (29%)
Submission
4 (40%)
7 (33%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

John Castañeda74%
Shamidkhan Magomedov 26%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes John Castañeda a 74% favorite over Shamidkhan Magomedov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

John Castañeda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1680, a 17-point edge.

John Castañeda finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Shamidkhan Magomedov 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.