Josh Kwiatkowski vs Zak Flessas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-9-0Record3-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
-Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1516
If they lose-16→ 1484
If they win+24→ 1524
If they lose-24→ 1476
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1492 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Josh KwiatkowskiZak Flessas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Zak Flessas54%
Josh Kwiatkowski 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Zak Flessas a 54% favorite over Josh Kwiatkowski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Kwiatkowski's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1500 vs 1500), separated by just 0 points.
Josh Kwiatkowski finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Zak Flessas 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.