Justin Buchholz vs Niklas Stolze
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-11-0Record14-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach74"
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
IndependentTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1544
If they lose-12→ 1520
If they win+16→ 1542
If they lose-16→ 1510
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Justin BuchholzNiklas Stolze
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Niklas Stolze59%
Justin Buchholz 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Niklas Stolze a 59% favorite over Justin Buchholz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Buchholz's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1526), separated by just 6 points.
Niklas Stolze enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Justin Buchholz finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Niklas Stolze 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.