Justin Hawes vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-8-1Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'11"Height-
TBDReach-
199 lbsWeight205 lbs
Desert DogsTeamTeam Ryano Waterford· 1584 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1475
If they lose-15→ 1443
If they win+23→ 1494
If they lose-25→ 1446
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1483 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Justin HawesMatthew O'Rourke
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke65%
Justin Hawes 35%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 65% favorite over Justin Hawes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1458 vs 1471), separated by just 13 points.
Justin Hawes finishes 57% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.