Kacper Formela vs Trey Ogden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-6-0Record18-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
71.3"Reach72"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Mighty Bulls GdyniaTeamMarathon MMA· 1665 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1678
If they lose-12→ 1654
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1533 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kacper FormelaTrey Ogden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trey Ogden58%
Kacper Formela 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Trey Ogden a 58% favorite over Kacper Formela in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kacper Formela's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1666 vs 1666), separated by just 0 points.
Kacper Formela enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kacper Formela finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Trey Ogden 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.