Combat Edge Intelligence

Kazuhiro Hamanaka vs Matthew O'Rourke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

5-7-1Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'7"Height-
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Laughter7TeamTeam Ryano Waterford

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kazuhiro HamanakaNow 1477
If they win+16→ 1493
If they lose-16→ 1461
Matthew O'RourkeNow 1471
If they win+24→ 1495
If they lose-24→ 1447

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1547 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kazuhiro HamanakaMatthew O'Rourke
15002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (25%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
2 (50%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (25%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew O'Rourke62%
Kazuhiro Hamanaka 38%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 62% favorite over Kazuhiro Hamanaka in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kazuhiro Hamanaka's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1477 vs 1471), separated by just 6 points.

Kazuhiro Hamanaka finishes 75% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.