Combat Edge Intelligence

Kegan Gennrich vs Nikolas Motta

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record15-6-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'8"
75"Reach70"
171 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fox Valley Grappling ClubTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kegan GennrichNow 1642
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626
Nikolas MottaNow 1642
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.64
TBD
Strike accuracy
37%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.50
TBD
Strike defense
56%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
82%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Kegan GennrichNikolas Motta
160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
5 (42%)
Submission
0 (0%)
6 (50%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Kegan Gennrich79%
Nikolas Motta 21%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kegan Gennrich a 79% favorite over Nikolas Motta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1642), separated by just 0 points.

Kegan Gennrich enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Kegan Gennrich finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Nikolas Motta 67%.

Kegan Gennrich carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.