Kegan Gennrich vs Ray Hayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record9-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75"Reach-
171 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fox Valley Grappling ClubTeamArsenal Elite
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kegan GennrichRay Hayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ray Hayes60%
Kegan Gennrich 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ray Hayes a 60% favorite over Kegan Gennrich in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kegan Gennrich's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1642 vs 1641), separated by just 1 points.
Kegan Gennrich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ray Hayes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Kegan Gennrich finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Ray Hayes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.