Combat Edge Intelligence

Kegan Gennrich vs Vicente Vargas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record24-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'2"Height5'8"
75"Reach-
171 lbsWeight147 lbs
Fox Valley Grappling ClubTeamTeam Ludus

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kegan GennrichNow 1646
If they win+16→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1630
Vicente VargasNow 1645
If they win+12→ 1657
If they lose-12→ 1633

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
Not available
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Takedown avg.
Not available
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Takedown accuracy
Not available
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Kegan GennrichVicente Vargas
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
2 (9%)
5 (42%)
Submission
5 (22%)
6 (50%)
Decision
16 (70%)

Combat Edge model read

Kegan Gennrich59%
Vicente Vargas 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kegan Gennrich a 59% favorite over Vicente Vargas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1646 vs 1645), separated by just 1 points.

Kegan Gennrich enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Kegan Gennrich finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Vicente Vargas 30%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.