Kevin Lee vs Paul Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-9-0Record14-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
77"Reach70"
170 lbsWeight159 lbs
Tristar GymTeamFight Academy Ireland· 1599 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1723
If they lose-12→ 1699
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1630 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin LeePaul Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Lee53%
Paul Hughes 47%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Lee a 53% favorite over Paul Hughes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Paul Hughes's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1711 vs 1715), separated by just 4 points.
Kevin Lee finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Paul Hughes 71%.
Kevin Lee carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.