Combat Edge Intelligence

Kēstin McClain vs Rodrigo Vargas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-0-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'7"
-Reach71"
147 lbsWeight160 lbs
Roughhouse BoxingTeamMexican Pride Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kēstin McClainNow 1622
If they win+24→ 1646
If they lose-24→ 1598
Rodrigo VargasNow 1622
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.65
TBD
Strike accuracy
54%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.77
TBD
Strike defense
58%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.40
TBD
Takedown accuracy
25%
TBD
Takedown defense
30%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.40

Trajectory

Kēstin McClainRodrigo Vargas
155016002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (60%)
KO/TKO
7 (44%)
1 (20%)
Submission
7 (44%)
1 (20%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Kēstin McClain67%
Rodrigo Vargas 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kēstin McClain a 67% favorite over Rodrigo Vargas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1622), separated by just 0 points.

Kēstin McClain enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Rodrigo Vargas enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Kēstin McClain finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Vargas 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.