Combat Edge Intelligence

Kēstin McClain vs Rustam Asuev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-0-0Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
-Reach-
147 lbsWeight149 lbs
Roughhouse BoxingTeamFight Club Berkut

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kēstin McClainNow 1622
If they win+24→ 1646
If they lose-24→ 1598
Rustam AsuevNow 1620
If they win+16→ 1636
If they lose-16→ 1604

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1508 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kēstin McClainRustam Asuev
15501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (60%)
KO/TKO
2 (20%)
1 (20%)
Submission
1 (10%)
1 (20%)
Decision
7 (70%)

Combat Edge model read

Kēstin McClain62%
Rustam Asuev 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kēstin McClain a 62% favorite over Rustam Asuev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1620), separated by just 2 points.

Kēstin McClain enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Rustam Asuev enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Kēstin McClain finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Asuev 30%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.