Combat Edge Intelligence

Lance Palmer vs Tofiq Musayev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-8-0Record23-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'10"
69"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamOrion Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lance PalmerNow 1706
If they win+12→ 1718
If they lose-12→ 1694
Tofiq MusayevNow 1706
If they win+16→ 1722
If they lose-16→ 1690

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.84
TBD
Strike accuracy
46%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.74
TBD
Strike defense
51%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.30
TBD
Takedown accuracy
60%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Lance PalmerTofiq Musayev
1700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (4%)
KO/TKO
18 (78%)
8 (35%)
Submission
2 (9%)
14 (61%)
Decision
3 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Tofiq Musayev70%
Lance Palmer 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tofiq Musayev a 70% favorite over Lance Palmer in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lance Palmer's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1706 vs 1706), separated by just 0 points.

Lance Palmer enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Lance Palmer finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Tofiq Musayev 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.