Combat Edge Intelligence

Lone’er Kavanagh vs Mitch Raposo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-2-0Record11-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'5"
67"Reach64"
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamRegiment Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lone’er KavanaghNow 1670
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654
Mitch RaposoNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-16→ 1653

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.13
Sig. strikes / min
1.73
49%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.49
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.65
57%
Strike defense
61%
1.12
Takedown avg.
2.54
45%
Takedown accuracy
38%
94%
Takedown defense
62%
0.22
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Lone’er KavanaghMitch Raposo
1650170020252026

Win method breakdown

4 (40%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
1 (10%)
Submission
3 (27%)
5 (50%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Lone’er Kavanagh and Mitch Raposo within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1669), separated by just 1 points.

Mitch Raposo enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Lone’er Kavanagh finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Raposo 64%.

Lone’er Kavanagh carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.