Lucas Brennan vs Ray Hayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record9-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
71"Reach-
146 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas BrennanRay Hayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lucas Brennan60%
Ray Hayes 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Brennan a 60% favorite over Ray Hayes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1639), separated by just 0 points.
Ray Hayes enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Lucas Brennan finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Ray Hayes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.