Combat Edge Intelligence

Lucas Corbage vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

13-5-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
-Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Nova Uniao ArgentinaTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lucas CorbageNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.58
TBD
Takedown accuracy
39%
TBD
Takedown defense
81%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Lucas CorbageMichael Johnson
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
4 (31%)
Submission
2 (8%)
4 (31%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Johnson60%
Lucas Corbage 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Johnson a 60% favorite over Lucas Corbage in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Corbage's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.

Lucas Corbage finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.