Combat Edge Intelligence

Mahamed Aly vs Tuco Tokkos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tuco Tokkos
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Tuco Tokkos

“Tuco”

11-6-0Light HeavyweightUFC

1592Solid

Tale of the tape

5-1-0Record11-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
-Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
One Way Martial ArtsTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mahamed AlyNow 1596
If they win+24→ 1620
If they lose-24→ 1572
Tuco TokkosNow 1592
If they win+16→ 1608
If they lose-16→ 1576

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1528 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.12
TBD
Strike accuracy
40%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.27
TBD
Strike defense
47%
TBD
Takedown avg.
4.21
TBD
Takedown accuracy
47%
TBD
Takedown defense
33%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Mahamed AlyTuco Tokkos
15501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (80%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (27%)
1 (20%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Mahamed Aly60%
Tuco Tokkos 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Mahamed Aly a 60% favorite over Tuco Tokkos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1596 vs 1592), separated by just 4 points.

Mahamed Aly finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Tuco Tokkos 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.