Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcin Held vs Turpal Gediev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-10-0Record8-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
39,5"Reach71.7"
156 lbsWeight147 lbs
Ankos MMATeamIntegra Fight Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcin HeldNow 1672
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-12→ 1660
Turpal GedievNow 1670
If they win+24→ 1694
If they lose-24→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.41
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
35%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.02
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
47%
Strike defense
TBD
2.46
Takedown avg.
TBD
47%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
38%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.31
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Marcin HeldTurpal Gediev
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (14%)
KO/TKO
2 (25%)
15 (52%)
Submission
3 (38%)
10 (34%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Turpal Gediev76%
Marcin Held 24%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Turpal Gediev a 76% favorite over Marcin Held in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcin Held's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1670), separated by just 2 points.

Turpal Gediev enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Marcin Held finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Turpal Gediev 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.