Marcio Alexandre Junior vs Nikk Covert
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record3-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Astra Fight TeamTeamTeam Kihon
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Nikk Covert carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1489
If they lose-26→ 1441
If they win+26→ 1467
If they lose-22→ 1419
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1504 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcio Alexandre JuniorNikk Covert
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Alexandre Junior53%
Nikk Covert 47%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 53% favorite over Nikk Covert in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1467 to 1441, a 26-point edge.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Nikk Covert 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.