Combat Edge Intelligence

Matheus Scheffel vs Patrick Smith

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record20-17-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
262 lbsWeight225 lbs
CM System· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeam

What's at stake

Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Patrick Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matheus ScheffelNow 1524
If they win+11→ 1535
If they lose-13→ 1511
Patrick SmithNow 1502
If they win+13→ 1515
If they lose-11→ 1491

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1619 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
36%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
47%
Strike defense
Not available
0
Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
100%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Matheus ScheffelPatrick Smith
1500155016002016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

12 (71%)
KO/TKO
13 (65%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (30%)
5 (29%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Matheus Scheffel66%
Patrick Smith 34%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 66% favorite over Patrick Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1524 to 1502, a 22-point edge.

Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Patrick Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matheus Scheffel finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Smith 95%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.