Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Schnell vs Sergio Cossio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-11-0Record19-12-1
FlyweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'7"
70"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight166 lbs
Fortis MMATeamInv1ktus Durango

What's at stake

Matt Schnell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Sergio Cossio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt SchnellNow 1606
If they win+11→ 1617
If they lose-13→ 1593
Sergio CossioNow 1588
If they win+13→ 1601
If they lose-11→ 1577

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1674 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.07
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
40%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
0.60
Takedown avg.
TBD
45%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
43%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.21
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Matt SchnellSergio Cossio
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (13%)
KO/TKO
6 (32%)
9 (56%)
Submission
9 (47%)
5 (31%)
Decision
4 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Matt Schnell53%
Sergio Cossio 47%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Matt Schnell a 53% favorite over Sergio Cossio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Matt Schnell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1606 to 1588, a 18-point edge.

Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Sergio Cossio enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Matt Schnell finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Cossio 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.