Max Coga vs Noah Gugnon
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-8-1Record10-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
72"Reach68"
156 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team MMA Spirit· 1647 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamBulgarian Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-12→ 1660
If they win+16→ 1688
If they lose-16→ 1656
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1520 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Max CogaNoah Gugnon
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Noah Gugnon58%
Max Coga 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Noah Gugnon a 58% favorite over Max Coga in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Max Coga's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1672 vs 1672), separated by just 0 points.
Max Coga enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Noah Gugnon enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Max Coga finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Noah Gugnon 100%.
Max Coga carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.