Nathan Trepagnier vs Pablo Rubio Jr.
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-6-0Record15-0-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
67" Reach70.5"
160 lbsWeight135.0 lbs
Academy of Martial ArtsTeamTBD
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
If they win+24→ 1524
If they lose-24→ 1476
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight EloTBD
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier57%
Pablo Rubio Jr. 43%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 57% favorite over Pablo Rubio Jr. in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1505 vs 1500), separated by just 5 points.
Nathan Trepagnier finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Pablo Rubio Jr. 100%.
Pablo Rubio Jr. carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.