Combat Edge Intelligence

Nicolaj Wagner vs Łukasz Brzeski

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-4-0Record9-7-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
-Reach78"
249 lbsWeight236 lbs
TBDTeamNKSW Holy Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+24→ 1556
If they lose-24→ 1508
Łukasz BrzeskiNow 1535
If they win+16→ 1551
If they lose-16→ 1519

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1644 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.02
TBD
Strike accuracy
50%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.68
TBD
Strike defense
55%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.43
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
37%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Nicolaj WagnerŁukasz Brzeski
1500155016002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (100%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (22%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner78%
Łukasz Brzeski 22%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 78% favorite over Łukasz Brzeski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Łukasz Brzeski's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1535), separated by just 3 points.

Łukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Nicolaj Wagner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Łukasz Brzeski 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.