Nicolaj Wagner vs Łukasz Brzeski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record9-7-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
-Reach78"
249 lbsWeight236 lbs
TeamNKSW Holy Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1556
If they lose-24→ 1508
If they win+16→ 1550
If they lose-16→ 1518
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1498 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Nicolaj WagnerŁukasz Brzeski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Łukasz Brzeski74%
Nicolaj Wagner 26%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Łukasz Brzeski a 74% favorite over Nicolaj Wagner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1532 vs 1534), separated by just 2 points.
Łukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Nicolaj Wagner finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Łukasz Brzeski 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.