Patrick Smith vs Petera Wilson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-17-0Record3-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
225 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team
What's at stake
Petera Wilson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Patrick Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1515
If they lose-11→ 1491
If they win+23→ 1541
If they lose-25→ 1493
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Patrick SmithPetera Wilson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Petera Wilson65%
Patrick Smith 35%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Petera Wilson a 65% favorite over Patrick Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Petera Wilson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1518 to 1502, a 16-point edge.
Patrick Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Petera Wilson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Patrick Smith finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Petera Wilson 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.