Patrick Smith vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-17-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
225 lbsWeight246 lbs
TeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1514
If they lose-12→ 1490
If they win+12→ 1502
If they lose-12→ 1478
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Patrick SmithRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai56%
Patrick Smith 44%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 56% favorite over Patrick Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Patrick Smith's way (48%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1502 vs 1490), separated by just 12 points.
Patrick Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Patrick Smith finishes 95% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.