Combat Edge Intelligence

Phillipe Nover vs Shin Haraguchi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-8-1Record8-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'6"
72,0"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Team Renzo GracieTeamBrave

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Phillipe NoverNow 1647
If they win+16→ 1663
If they lose-16→ 1631
Shin HaraguchiNow 1646
If they win+16→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.79
Sig. strikes / min
2.28
36%
Strike accuracy
64%
2.48
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.78
56%
Strike defense
48%
0.99
Takedown avg.
11.21
29%
Takedown accuracy
54%
45%
Takedown defense
0%
0.66
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Phillipe NoverShin Haraguchi
1550160016501700201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (9%)
KO/TKO
5 (63%)
5 (45%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (45%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Shin Haraguchi70%
Phillipe Nover 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Shin Haraguchi a 70% favorite over Phillipe Nover in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Phillipe Nover's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1647 vs 1646), separated by just 1 points.

Phillipe Nover enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Phillipe Nover finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Shin Haraguchi 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.