Raffael Cerqueira vs Sam Hoger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record10-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
76"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
CTJ Judo & Jiu-JitsuTeamMiletich Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1645
If they lose-16→ 1613
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Raffael CerqueiraSam Hoger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Raffael Cerqueira57%
Sam Hoger 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Raffael Cerqueira a 57% favorite over Sam Hoger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1629 vs 1627), separated by just 2 points.
Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Sam Hoger enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Raffael Cerqueira finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Sam Hoger 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.