Combat Edge Intelligence

Raffael Cerqueira vs Sullivan Cauley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record8-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
76"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
CTJ Judo & Jiu-JitsuTeamDan's Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Raffael CerqueiraNow 1629
If they win+16→ 1645
If they lose-16→ 1613
Sullivan CauleyNow 1631
If they win+16→ 1647
If they lose-16→ 1615

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.61
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
45%
Strike accuracy
Not available
4.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
37%
Strike defense
Not available
0
Takedown avg.
Not available
Not available
Takedown accuracy
Not available
40%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Raffael CerqueiraSullivan Cauley
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (73%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
2 (18%)
Submission
1 (13%)
1 (9%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Sullivan Cauley56%
Raffael Cerqueira 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Sullivan Cauley a 56% favorite over Raffael Cerqueira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1629 vs 1631), separated by just 2 points.

Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Sullivan Cauley enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Raffael Cerqueira finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Sullivan Cauley 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.