Shinji Sasaki vs Tommy Speer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-15-3Record21-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
BurstTeamTBD
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1530
If they lose-16→ 1498
If they win+24→ 1543
If they lose-24→ 1495
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1640 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Shinji SasakiTommy Speer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tommy Speer60%
Shinji Sasaki 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Tommy Speer a 60% favorite over Shinji Sasaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1514 vs 1519), separated by just 5 points.
Shinji Sasaki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Shinji Sasaki finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Speer 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.