Tommy Speer vs Will Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-7-0Record3-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight161 lbs
TeamDerby City MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1543
If they lose-24→ 1495
If they win+24→ 1547
If they lose-24→ 1499
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1639 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Tommy SpeerWill Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Davis55%
Tommy Speer 45%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Davis a 55% favorite over Tommy Speer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1519 vs 1523), separated by just 4 points.
Tommy Speer finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Will Davis 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.