Tommy Speer vs Yusaku Kinoshita
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-7-0Record6-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach71,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
TBDTeamPancrase Inagakigumi
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1543
If they lose-24→ 1495
If they win+16→ 1538
If they lose-16→ 1506
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Tommy SpeerYusaku Kinoshita
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yusaku Kinoshita60%
Tommy Speer 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Yusaku Kinoshita a 60% favorite over Tommy Speer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1519 vs 1522), separated by just 3 points.
Yusaku Kinoshita enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tommy Speer finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Yusaku Kinoshita 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.