Aalon Cruz vs Spike Carlyle
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record15-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
78,0"Reach39,0"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Team Darkside MMATeamKings MMA· 1669 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Spike Carlyle is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Aalon Cruz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1644
If they lose-13→ 1612
If they win+13→ 1693
If they lose-19→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1573 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aalon CruzSpike Carlyle
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Spike Carlyle70%
Aalon Cruz 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Spike Carlyle a 70% favorite over Aalon Cruz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Spike Carlyle holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1680 to 1625, a 55-point edge.
Aalon Cruz finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Spike Carlyle 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.