Aaron Phillips vs Joe Martin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-11-0Record6-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
184 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Aaron Phillips is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Joe Martin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1473
If they lose-18→ 1441
If they win+18→ 1439
If they lose-14→ 1407
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PhillipsJoe Martin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Phillips57%
Joe Martin 43%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Phillips a 57% favorite over Joe Martin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Aaron Phillips holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1459 to 1421, a 38-point edge.
Aaron Phillips enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron Phillips finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Joe Martin 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.