Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Aby vs Francisco Figueiredo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

19-11-1Record13-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
-Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
The MMA Academy LiverpoolTeamTeam Figueiredo

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron AbyNow 1581
If they win+12→ 1593
If they lose-12→ 1569
Francisco FigueiredoNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
2.04
TBD
Strike accuracy
62%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.59
TBD
Strike defense
62%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.51
TBD
Takedown accuracy
75%
TBD
Takedown defense
76%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Aaron AbyFrancisco Figueiredo
155016002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (11%)
KO/TKO
3 (23%)
7 (37%)
Submission
8 (62%)
10 (53%)
Decision
2 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Aaron Aby60%
Francisco Figueiredo 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Aby a 60% favorite over Francisco Figueiredo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1581 vs 1576), separated by just 5 points.

Aaron Aby enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Aaron Aby finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Figueiredo 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.