Aaron Aby vs Josh Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-11-1Record11-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
-ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
The MMA Academy LiverpoolTeamAll American MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1593
If they lose-12→ 1569
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1535 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron AbyJosh Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Aby53%
Josh Ferguson 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Aby a 53% favorite over Josh Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josh Ferguson's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1581 vs 1584), separated by just 3 points.
Aaron Aby enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Josh Ferguson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Aaron Aby finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Josh Ferguson 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.