Aaron Brink vs Roggers Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
29-27-0Record15-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
231 lbsWeight265 lbs
TeamAlcateia MMA
What's at stake
Roggers Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Aaron Brink carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1500
If they lose-10→ 1476
If they win+14→ 1544
If they lose-18→ 1512
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron BrinkRoggers Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roggers Souza78%
Aaron Brink 22%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Roggers Souza a 78% favorite over Aaron Brink in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Roggers Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1530 to 1486, a 44-point edge.
Aaron Brink enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron Brink finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roggers Souza 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.