Aaron Jeffery vs Patrik Kincl
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-6-0Record30-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
74"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Niagara Top Team· 1667 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamAll Sports Academy· 1666 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1727
If they lose-16→ 1695
If they win+12→ 1724
If they lose-12→ 1700
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron JefferyPatrik Kincl
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Jeffery53%
Patrik Kincl 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Jeffery a 53% favorite over Patrik Kincl in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Patrik Kincl's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1711 vs 1712), separated by just 1 points.
Patrik Kincl enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Aaron Jeffery finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Patrik Kincl 72%.
Aaron Jeffery carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.