Aaron Lanfranco vs Michael Dubois
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-1-0Record15-13-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight5'10"
TBDReach70"
158 lbsWeight170 lbs
TBDTeamStrike Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1545
If they lose-24→ 1497
If they win+12→ 1530
If they lose-12→ 1506
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1443 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1499 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron LanfrancoMichael Dubois
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Dubois52%
Aaron Lanfranco 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Dubois a 52% favorite over Aaron Lanfranco in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Lanfranco's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1518), separated by just 3 points.
Michael Dubois enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron Lanfranco finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Michael Dubois 87%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.