Aaron McDonald vs Marcos Rosa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-5-0Record2-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"HeightTBD
-Reach45.00
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Torres Martial ArtsTeamTeam Nogueira Porto Alegre
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1506
If they lose-24→ 1458
If they win+24→ 1509
If they lose-24→ 1461
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron McDonaldMarcos Rosa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcos Rosa52%
Aaron McDonald 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Rosa a 52% favorite over Aaron McDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1482 vs 1485), separated by just 3 points.
Aaron McDonald finishes 50% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.