Aaron McDonald vs Melvin Guillard
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-4-0Record32-22-2
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1530
If they lose-24→ 1482
If they win+12→ 1521
If they lose-12→ 1497
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1488 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron McDonaldMelvin Guillard
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Melvin Guillard53%
Aaron McDonald 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Melvin Guillard a 53% favorite over Aaron McDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1506 vs 1509), separated by just 3 points.
Aaron McDonald enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Melvin Guillard enters on a 10-fight loss streak.
Aaron McDonald finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Melvin Guillard 72%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.