Aaron McDonald vs Mohammed Rouziq
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-5-0Record3-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"HeightTBD
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1506
If they lose-24→ 1458
If they win+24→ 1507
If they lose-24→ 1459
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron McDonaldMohammed Rouziq
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron McDonald64%
Mohammed Rouziq 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron McDonald a 64% favorite over Mohammed Rouziq in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mohammed Rouziq's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1482 vs 1483), separated by just 1 points.
Mohammed Rouziq enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Aaron McDonald finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Rouziq 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.