Aaron McKenzie vs Gesias Cavalcante
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-1Record22-12-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
73.5"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
If they win+12→ 1672
If they lose-12→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron McKenzie67%
Gesias Cavalcante 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron McKenzie a 67% favorite over Gesias Cavalcante in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1660), separated by just 1 points.
Aaron McKenzie enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Aaron McKenzie finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Gesias Cavalcante 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.