Aaron McKenzie vs Ismael Bonfim
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-1Record20-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
73.5"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BattleGrounds MMATeamCerrado MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron McKenzieIsmael Bonfim
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ismael Bonfim74%
Aaron McKenzie 26%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ismael Bonfim a 74% favorite over Aaron McKenzie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1662), separated by just 1 points.
Aaron McKenzie enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ismael Bonfim enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Aaron McKenzie finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ismael Bonfim 65%.
Aaron McKenzie carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.