Aaron McKenzie vs Kauê Fernandes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-1Record11-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'0"
73.5"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
BattleGrounds MMATeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1677
If they lose-16→ 1645
If they win+16→ 1675
If they lose-16→ 1643
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron McKenzieKauê Fernandes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kauê Fernandes70%
Aaron McKenzie 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kauê Fernandes a 70% favorite over Aaron McKenzie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron McKenzie's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1661 vs 1659), separated by just 2 points.
Aaron McKenzie enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Aaron McKenzie finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Kauê Fernandes 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.