Aaron McKenzie vs Sage Northcutt
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-1Record12-3-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
73.5"Reach71,5"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
BattleGrounds MMATeamTeam Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1680
If they lose-16→ 1648
If they win+16→ 1680
If they lose-16→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sage Northcutt68%
Aaron McKenzie 32%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sage Northcutt a 68% favorite over Aaron McKenzie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron McKenzie's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1664 vs 1664), separated by just 0 points.
Aaron McKenzie enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Aaron McKenzie finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Sage Northcutt 75%.
Aaron McKenzie carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.