Aaron Phillips vs Dustin Pague
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record12-11-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
135 lbsWeight152 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamDisciple MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1518
If they lose-16→ 1486
If they win+16→ 1522
If they lose-16→ 1490
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PhillipsDustin Pague
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Aaron Phillips52%
Dustin Pague 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Aaron Phillips a 52% favorite over Dustin Pague in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dustin Pague's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1502 vs 1506), separated by just 4 points.
Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Pague 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.