Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Phillips vs Gaston Bolaños

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record9-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamCSA

What's at stake

Gaston Bolaños is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Aaron Phillips carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron PhillipsNow 1502
If they win+20→ 1522
If they lose-12→ 1490
Gaston BolañosNow 1596
If they win+12→ 1608
If they lose-20→ 1576

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.51
Sig. strikes / min
3.28
53%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.40
44%
Strike defense
51%
0.86
Takedown avg.
0.66
50%
Takedown accuracy
100%
44%
Takedown defense
43%
0.57
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Aaron PhillipsGaston Bolaños
150015501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
6 (67%)
2 (17%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (33%)
Decision
3 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Gaston Bolaños80%
Aaron Phillips 20%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Gaston Bolaños a 80% favorite over Aaron Phillips in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Gaston Bolaños holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1596 to 1502, a 94-point edge.

Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Gaston Bolaños 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.