Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Phillips vs Justin Pennington

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record3-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamLebanon Catch Wrestling Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Aaron PhillipsNow 1502
If they win+16→ 1518
If they lose-16→ 1486
Justin PenningtonNow 1498
If they win+24→ 1522
If they lose-24→ 1474

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.51
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
53%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
44%
Strike defense
TBD
0.86
Takedown avg.
TBD
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
44%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.57
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Aaron PhillipsJustin Pennington
145015001550201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
2 (67%)
2 (17%)
Submission
1 (33%)
4 (33%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Justin Pennington56%
Aaron Phillips 44%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Justin Pennington a 56% favorite over Aaron Phillips in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Aaron Phillips's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1502 vs 1498), separated by just 4 points.

Aaron Phillips enters on a 7-fight loss streak.

Aaron Phillips finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Justin Pennington 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.